Spot Silicon Metal Prices Hold Steady, Polysilicon Production Schedule Expectations Lowered [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM Jan. 14:

Silicon Coal

Price: Silicon coal prices held steady this week, with the average price of Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal at about 855 yuan/mt, caking silicon coal prices in the range of about 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, Shaanxi silicon coal at about 880 yuan/mt, Inner Mongolia silicon coal at about 1,260 yuan/mt, Gansu silicon mixed coal at about 930 yuan/mt, and pellet coal at about 1,050 yuan/mt.

Supply: Recently, some coal washing plants in Xinjiang suspended production temporarily due to safety inspections, while other regions maintained order-based production.

Demand: Based on the weekly operating rates of downstream silicon plants, demand remained relatively stable, with raw material procurement being just-in-time.

Silicon Metal

Price: The silicon metal market moved sideways. Futures moved sideways in the doldrums yesterday, with SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, both flat from the previous day. In futures, the most-traded silicon contract closed at 8,635 yuan/mt at the end of the session, down 120 yuan/mt from the previous day. Pre-holiday stockpiling sentiment among downstream users was not active, and market transactions were need-based.

Production:

Silicon metal supply and demand were both weak in January. On the supply side, operating rates in northern China were weak, with marginal reductions in Sichuan and Yunnan. On the demand side, polysilicon and silicone production schedules decreased, reducing silicon consumption. Supply remained slightly loose.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: SMM statistics showed that social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 552,000 mt on Jan. 8, down 5,000 mt from before the New Year's Day holiday (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Silicone

Price

DMC: The transaction price was 13,700-14,000 yuan/mt yesterday, up 250 yuan/mt WoW. Starting this Monday, major monomer producers raised prices by 300 yuan/mt, with a Shandong-based producer offering 13,700 yuan/mt. After the price adjustment, transactions were mainly just-in-time. However, due to the cancellation of the silicone export tax rebate policy, procurement demand from some export-oriented producers increased.

D4: The price was quoted at 13,800-15,000 yuan/mt yesterday, up 300 yuan/mt WoW.

107 Silicone Rubber: The price was quoted at 14,200-14,800 yuan/mt yesterday, up 350 yuan/mt WoW.

Raw Silicone Rubber: The price was quoted at 14,600-15,000 yuan/mt yesterday, up 300 yuan/mt WoW.

Silicone Oil: The price was quoted at 15,200-15,800 yuan/mt yesterday, up 250 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

The overall operating rate in the silicone industry currently stands at 66%, with overall supply under control. Amid recent concentrated procurement by downstream users, some monomer producers have production schedules booked until early February.

Inventory:

With the recent increase in trading volume in the silicone market, the inventory levels of domestic monomer enterprises have decreased.

Polysilicon

Price:

The price of N-type recharging polysilicon is 51-58.5 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon is 50-58.5 yuan/kg. The polysilicon price index is 54.53 yuan/kg. Top-tier enterprises are still holding prices firm due to the impact of export tax rebates, while the lower prices in the market are mainly from some traders. Currently, the market sentiment remains heavily speculative, with a top-tier upstream enterprise planning a production halt recently. The subsequent situation may depend on the next round of concentrated order signing.

Production:

The expected domestic production for January may decline by 3-4 kt compared to previous expectations, likely settling around 103,000 mt, mainly affected by the gradual shutdown of top-tier enterprises. February's production is highly likely to fall below 100,000 mt.

Inventory:

This week, polysilicon inventories continued to rise. The current market is quite chaotic, with some wafer enterprises choosing to purchase from traders. Some previously unpaid orders have been canceled, and inventories may continue to increase.

Wafer

Price

The price of 18X wafers is 1.38-1.4 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers is 1.48-1.5 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers is 1.68-1.7 yuan/piece. This week, the wafer transaction range has narrowed upwards. With the cancellation of export tax rebates, integrated enterprises have significantly resumed and increased production, leading to a substantial increase in wafer purchasing demand. Wafer enterprises have a strong sentiment for price increases.

Production

In January, the wafer production schedule increased slightly by about 3%. According to surveys, the two enterprises that halted production at the beginning of the month have gradually resumed operations. The market for toll processing orders is recovering, and small enterprises are increasing production at a rate above average. Overall, the January wafer production schedule may be slightly higher than expected.

Inventory

Wafer enterprises are shifting towards destocking, with upstream finished product inventories starting to be digested in the second week. After the cell plants raised prices, the pace of stockpiling and restocking has slowed down. Currently, the total wafer inventory is approaching a reasonable level.

High-purity quartz sand

Price

The current domestic price for inner-layer sand is 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand is 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand is 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt. The price of imported high-purity quartz sand is 74,000-76,000 yuan/mt. The price of 33-inch quartz crucibles is 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles is 7,000-7,400 yuan/piece. Recent negotiations for imported sand remain in a stalemate.

Production

In January, the production schedule of quartz sand enterprises decreased slightly by 2% MoM. Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises cut production to match the wafer production schedule, but supply pressure remains significant.

Inventory

The inventory level of quartz sand increased slightly, and the purchase volume of crucible enterprises decreased.